Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Alabama and Auburn Season Preview Part 1

This week I am working at school at this thing called a "Course Extension". It is for students who barely failed a class and need to do some extra work to get a minimum passing grade. The students do a bunch of work, and I make sure they don't kill each other or burn the building down. It is basically a babysitting job. Right now I am bored to tears, so to pass the time I am going to present to you a 2011 season preview for both Auburn and Alabama. I am obviously biased toward one of these teams so keep that in mind as you read.

First up, Bammer:

Before I make my predictions, I want to say some general things about Alabama. I think the QBs will be a major issue throughout the season. I think Trent Richardson will be absolutely sick and the Bammer D by itself will probably be responsible for 2-3 wins despite an inconsistent offense.

Week 1 VS Kent State
A solid tune-up game for Bammer. The stadium will be sold out, but a third empty by the end of the third quarter. I expect them to be pretty crisp (with the exception of the QB position) as Saban usually does a good job of getting a team ready to go even on week one. I expect whichever QB starts to have multiple TOs, but the O line, RBs, and defense to pick up the slack.
Final Score: Bammer 41-6

Week 2 @ Penn State
Some in the media (Herbstreit, I'm looking at you) will probably try to talk up Penn State's chances here since it is at Happy Valley, but Bammer will win this game with defense and a solid running game. Basically, they will keep the ball out of Penn State's hands. The score will be relatively close, but I think the game won't be in doubt by the fourth quarter.
Final Score: Bammer 20-10

Game 3 VS North Texas
If there is no QB controversy, Bammer wins in a walk. If trouble at the QB position continues, Bammer wins in a light jog.
Final Score: Bammer 31-3

Game 4 VS Arkansas
Here is where things get interesting. I am toying with the idea of picking Arkansas as my SEC West champ. I think they will be very good. Count me as one of those who thinks Arkansas will actually be better without Ryan Mallet. The one thing that could hinder them is that this will be the first big test for Arky's first year starting QB. However, they will have three easy tune-up games to prepare for UA. This could be the game of the year in the SEC. Also, I have little confidence in the QB situation for Bammer, and I think it will cost them the game. Bobby Petrino will have Arky ready to go, and I think they pull off the upset in a brutal battle in Tuscaloosa.
Final Score: Arkansas 17-13

Game 5 @ Florida
Florida and Georgia are the two biggest question marks in the SEC this year. I don't think anyone really knows what to expect from either team. I think Florida will be decent, but not up to Florida standards just yet. The switch in offensive philosophy will be a drag on UF this year. They have some sick athletes down there, but they weren't recruited to play in a pro-style offense. I just don't know who will run the ball for them. They have the QB, but you have to be able to run the ball if you're going to line up in the "I" all season long. Also, Saban will have the team focused to stay in the SEC West race after the loss to Arkansas the week before. The Bammer D will take advantage of mistakes and may even get 6 to help out the O.
Final Score: Bammer 17-13

Game 6 VS Vanderbilt
Vandy will be bad even by Vandy standards this year.
Final Score: Bammer 31-3

Game 7 @ Ole Miss
A better game might be to figure out whether Houston Nutt still has a job at this point in the season. Ole Miss plays BYU, Fresno State, and UGA before UA comes to town. You have to like Nutt's chances when his back is against the wall, and I am pretty sure it will be by the time this point of season rolls around. However, Nutt and the Rebels don't have the talent, speed, or size to hang with the rest of the SEC West right now. Bammer controls the game and wins in a pretty dominant fashion.
Final Score: Bammer 24-6

Game 8 VS Tennessee
I am tempted to pick UT as my SEC East champ. I know that sounds crazy, but I was impressed with what Dooley got out of his team during the second half of last season. They will still be very young, but by this point in the season, they should be battle tested enough to go toe-to-toe with Bammer. The QB situation could rear its ugly head again, but since the game is in Tuscaloosa I give UA the edge.
Final Score: Bammer 20-10

Game 9 VS LSU
LSU is another question mark to me. I always have a hard time trying to figure them out. How can team so much talent always be a question in my mind? Oh yeah, I forgot Les Miles is their coach. LSU pulled one out against Bammer last year, because Bammer was too focused on Auburn in my opinion. As a result, Saban coached himself out of SEC West and National Championship contention. That doesn't happen this year. This will be a sloppy game though. LSU faces, in order, Florida, Tennessee, Auburn, and Alabama in a row. That is a brutal stretch, and it will ultimately make the difference in the game.
Final Score: Bammer 17-13

Game 10 @ Mississippi State
State is a program on the rise under the lovable hunchback Dan Mullen. He is an offensive genius and solid QB coach. This will be another major test for Bammer. Starkvegas will be rocking and the cowbells will be deafening. Mullin will pull out all the stops to try and keep the Bulldogs in the SEC West race late in the season. I really want to call the upset here. I can see the Bammer QBs struggling in an environment like this. Multiple turnovers late in the game will sink Bammer's hopes, and Mullen pulls off his biggest win to date.
Final Score: State 20-17

Game 11 VS Georgia Southern
Bammer will be licking their wounds a little here and might play distracted with the Auburn game a week away. As a result, I think GSU gets to double digits but just barely.
Final Score: Bammer 38-10

Game 12 VS Auburn
I am only going to talk about UA since this is my UA preview. I think Trent Richardson will have an amazing game here. I predict that he basically puts the UA offense on his back and runs for 150-200 yards. I also think the Bammer D will give the AU passing game fits all day long. This game will be a true slugfest where both RBs have memorable performances. This game, much like last year but not to the same extent, will push the rivalry up another level. The game will have major implications on the SEC West race, but probably only one team will actually control its destiny to get to Atlanta.
Final Score: Auburn 17-16

I'll post my Auburn preview soon...

4 comments:

  1. Pretty fair assessment you got here. One thing I think that should be pointed out is that this is a great schedule for Alabama. Arkansas will be the test as to whether they can go the distance, but you have to know that Muschamp(sp?) is going to bring one hell of a game plan and I will expect Bama to be a little beaten up. Either way the Arkansas-Florida back to back and the Arkansas-LSU are going to keep them from winning them all.
    After you preview Auburns season, you should go over some of their recruits if you're still baby sitting.

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  2. If I wasn't an AU fan, I'd prbably only give Bammer two losses. Even with the QB situation, the team is too deep and talented. The State game could be substituted with UT or LSU. Mr. O, I agree that Coach Boom is a good coach, but I don't see who they have to run the ball. That will cost UF several games this season. When playing a D like Bammer's, if you can't run the ball you're screwed.

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  3. Like you said, the QB position is not going to be settled going into the season. Both are very talented but inexperienced. How do you think it plays out by week 6? AJ or Sims? Sidenote: Bama is very good regardless of a qb controversy...but the right qb would make them elite

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  4. I disagree on the talent assessment. I thing this could be asituation where both are just decent but neither is good enough to clearly separate himeself from the other. This is why I think there will be a lingering controversy the whole year. I would think Saban would be smart enough to just pick one and go, but his comments so far this summer have me doubting that.

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